Crime Data Analysis (1979-2022)

Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime Data Explorer. Created on July 26, 2023.

This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of crime trends in the United States from 1979 to 2022, including descriptive statistics, trend analysis, correlation analysis, state-wise analysis, and a special focus on the 2020 crime spike.

Descriptive Statistics

The dataset contains information on estimated crimes, including various crime categories, population data, and state identifiers.

Descriptive Statistics Overview:

  • Year: Ranges from 1979 to 2022.

  • Population: Varies significantly with a mean of approximately 10 million and a standard deviation of about 36 million.

  • Violent Crime: Mean is around 52,931 incidents with a wide range from 322 to 1,932,274.

  • Homicide: Mean is 691 with a large range from 1 to 24,703.

  • Rape (Legacy and Revised): Both show high variability.

  • Robbery: Mean is 16,856 with a range from 41 to 687,732.

  • Aggravated Assault: Mean is 31,785 with a range from 213 to 1,135,607.

  • Property Crime: Mean is 380,847 with a wide range from 7,586 to 12,961,120.

  • Burglary, Larceny, Motor Vehicle Theft: All show high variability with means of 89,448, 249,835, and 41,565 respectively.

Trend Analysis

The following trends highlight the changes in various crime categories over the period from 1979 to 2022:

Violent Crimes:

  • Violent Crime: Shows significant fluctuations, with peaks in the early 1990s and a general decline afterward.

  • Homicide: Peaked around the early 1990s, followed by a noticeable decline.

  • Rape (Legacy Definition): Displayed a rising trend until the early 1990s, then fluctuated.

  • Robbery: Peaked in the early 1990s, followed by a downward trend.

  • Aggravated Assault: Consistent increase till the early 1990s, then a gradual decline.

Property Crimes:

  • Property Crime: Steadily declined from the early 1990s.

  • Burglary: Showed a significant decline from the early 1980s to 2022.

  • Larceny: Gradual decrease observed over the years.

  • Motor Vehicle Theft: Peaked in the early 1990s, followed by a decline.

Correlation Analysis

The correlation matrix provides insights into the relationships between different crime types and population:

Correlation Matrix

Correlation Matrix

  • Population: Shows a very high positive correlation with violent crime (0.969), homicide (0.962), and property crime (0.960). This indicates that larger populations tend to have higher reported crime rates.

  • Violent Crime: Strongly correlated with homicide (0.989), rape legacy (0.992), robbery (0.986), and aggravated assault (0.997). This suggests that these subcategories are significant contributors to the overall violent crime rate.

  • Property Crime: Strongly correlated with burglary (0.988), larceny (0.999), and motor vehicle theft (0.986). These high correlations indicate that fluctuations in property crime rates are closely associated with these subcategories.

State-wise Analysis

  • California: The state with the highest average population and the highest average number of violent crimes and property crimes.

  • Florida and Texas: Also have high average populations and crime rates, following California.

  • District of Columbia: Despite having a smaller population, it has relatively high average violent and property crime rates.

  • Maine and Vermont: Exhibit the lowest average crime rates, reflecting their smaller populations and lower crime rates.

Yearly Analysis

The year-over-year changes in crime rates reveal periods of significant fluctuations:

Year-over-Year Changes in Violent Crime Categories (1979-2022)

Year-over-Year Changes in Violent Crime

Violent Crimes:

  • Violent Crime: Exhibits notable year-over-year changes, particularly in the early 1980s and 1990s, indicating periods of substantial increases and decreases.

  • Homicide: Shows significant fluctuations, especially in the early 1990s, followed by periods of stabilization and smaller changes.

  • Rape (Legacy): Displays considerable variability in year-over-year changes, reflecting differences in reporting and definitions over time.

  • Robbery: Significant changes are evident in the early 1980s and 1990s.

  • Aggravated Assault: Similar trends to other violent crimes with notable changes in the 1980s and 1990s.

Property Crimes:

  • Property Crime: Consistent downward trend in year-over-year changes from the early 1990s.

  • Burglary: Significant decreases from the early 1980s onward.

  • Larceny: Steady declines in year-over-year changes over time.

  • Motor Vehicle Theft: Fluctuations in the early 1980s and 1990s, followed by a downward trend.

Special Focus: 2020 Crime Spike

The year 2020 marked a significant spike in crime rates, particularly violent crimes. This spike can be attributed to various factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, social unrest, economic instability, and changes in law enforcement practices. The following points highlight key observations:

  • Violent Crime: There was a marked increase in violent crimes, with notable rises in homicide and aggravated assault rates.

  • Homicide: The homicide rate surged significantly, reflecting increased social and economic tensions.

  • Robbery and Aggravated Assault: Both categories showed substantial increases, contributing to the overall rise in violent crime rates.

  • Property Crime: While there was an increase in certain areas, the overall trend continued to show a decline.

2020 Crime Spike Analysis

Conclusion

The analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of crime trends in the United States from 1979 to 2022, highlighting significant periods of change and the relationships between different crime types and population. The 2020 crime spike emphasizes the impact of extraordinary events on crime rates. This analysis can inform policy-making, law enforcement strategies, and social interventions.